Honeywell Aerospace Technologies' 34th Annual Global Business Aviation Outlook, released in October 2025, projects 8,500 new business jet deliveries valued at $283 billion between 2026 and 2035 — the most ambitious forecast in the report's three-decade history. The projection reflects a compound annual growth rate of approximately 3% and is underpinned by strengthening fundamentals across the operator base: 20% of global operators now hold at least one aircraft on firm order, up from 17% the prior year, and 91% of operators report plans to fly the same or more hours in 2026 compared to 2025. Near-term momentum is equally strong, with 2026 delivery volumes expected to run approximately 5% above 2025 levels. North America remains the dominant market, projected to absorb roughly 70% of global deliveries over the next three years, consistent with its 62% share of the global fleet.
The delivery data from the General Aviation Manufacturers Association confirms that the cycle is already running well ahead of recent baselines. Full-year 2025 business jet deliveries reached 854 units — the highest annual figure since the 874 recorded in 2009, a year distorted downward by the collapse from the 2008 peak of 1,317. Billing value for the broader general aviation sector hit a record approximately $35 billion in 2025, with jets alone accounting for $31 billion of that total. The recovery from the COVID trough of 644 deliveries in 2020 has been methodical and accelerating: 2021 through 2025 posted consecutive annual increases, and 2025 marked only the second time since the financial crisis that deliveries breached the 800-unit threshold. Latin America emerged as a notable growth region, with its share of 2025 deliveries rising to 10.8% from 4.8% the prior year — a signal that demand is beginning to diversify geographically beyond traditional North American and European strongholds.
For operators and flight departments, several structural drivers make this forecast credible rather than aspirational. The passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act in 2025, which reinstated 100% bonus depreciation for aircraft purchases, provides an immediate tax incentive for fleet acquisitions, effectively allowing buyers to deduct the full purchase price in the year the aircraft is placed in service. This mechanism has historically proven to be a reliable accelerant for capital equipment purchasing decisions across Part 91, Part 91K, and Part 135 operations. Simultaneously, fractional ownership programs continue to grow their operator base, converting charter users and first-time buyers into committed fleet participants. Rising operator utilization rates — noted explicitly in the Honeywell survey — suggest that existing assets are being worked harder, which historically precedes new-aircraft acquisition cycles as operators reach depreciation thresholds or seek performance and range upgrades.
The broader implications for the professional pilot labor market are significant. Eight thousand five hundred new airframes over a decade implies a sustained expansion of crewed flight operations across light, midsize, super-midsize, and large-cabin categories, each requiring type-rated crews. Manufacturers including Gulfstream, Bombardier, Dassault, Textron, and Embraer are all ramping production in anticipation of this demand, which in turn drives increased simulator availability, type rating pipeline activity, and recurrent training infrastructure investment. Fractional operators — who staff aircraft with dedicated crews on rotation — will face particular pressure to recruit and retain qualified pilots as fleet size increases. Part 135 charter operators, already strained by crew availability in the post-COVID demand surge, will need to compete more aggressively on compensation and scheduling to staff expanded operations.
The persistence of this forecast despite acknowledged macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds reflects a fundamental shift in how business aviation is perceived by corporate and high-net-worth buyers. The post-pandemic normalization of private travel, combined with continued productivity arguments for direct-routing and schedule flexibility, has elevated business aviation from a discretionary luxury to an embedded operational tool for many organizations. As OEM backlogs lengthen and pre-owned inventory remains tight — a condition that persisted through 2025 — buyers with capital access and favorable tax treatment are committing to new production slots years in advance. That order discipline, combined with diversifying regional demand and improving operator financials, supports the view that the coming decade's delivery cycle will be structurally different from the boom-bust pattern that characterized the pre-2008 era.